NBA games

MIN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN42371915113
ATL35253829127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (ATL) / 7 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ATL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 31 5 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 16 10 3
Rudy Gobert S 31 14 13 1
Naz Reid 24 13 1 0
Jaden McDaniels S 24 12 3 2
Shake Milton 17 10 1 1
Mike Conley S 28 6 2 3
Kyle Anderson 25 4 2 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 13 3 0 2
Luka Garza 1 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 39 41 7 5
Trae Young S 35 24 1 8
De'Andre Hunter S 30 16 4 2
Jalen Johnson S 33 12 5 3
Saddiq Bey 25 11 6 1
Onyeka Okongwu 24 10 7 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 8 1 4
AJ Griffin 6 3 0 1
Clint Capela S 23 2 5 1
Kobe Bufkin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Trae Young makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
4 Clint Capela ATL
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
50%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 20.8 2.7 8.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 19.8 6.0 3.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 17.6 6.6 2.7
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.6 4.9 1.9
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.3 4.9 1.7
6 Dejounte Murray ATL 13.2 3.9 4.1
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.8 5.7 1.5
8 Jalen Johnson ATL 12.2 5.5 2.7
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 4.9 1.6
10 Luka Garza MIN 10.8 3.6 1.3
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.5 3.0 3.6
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 9.1 1.2
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.3 8.8 1.0
14 Mike Conley MIN 8.6 2.6 3.0
15 Shake Milton MIN 7.4 2.4 3.3
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.1 3.1 4.4
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.6 2.9 1.8
18 AJ Griffin ATL 6.3 1.8 0.9
19 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.0 2.3 1.4
20 Josh Minott MIN 5.9 2.8 1.9
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.8 2.6 1.0
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.6 1.3 2.8
23 Trent Forrest ATL 5.4 1.6 2.3
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.1 3.4 1.2
25 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.4 2.1 1.0
26 Daishen Nix MIN 4.3 1.0 2.7
27 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.4 1.0 0.5
28 Patty Mills ATL 1.1 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.