NBA games

BOS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
126–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS42353118126
WSH19322432107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (WSH) / 7 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home WSH
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 36 6 2
Jayson Tatum S 28 33 6 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 24 15 6 3
Jrue Holiday S 27 11 5 3
Sam Hauser 25 8 8 1
Al Horford 16 8 5 1
Derrick White S 24 5 1 8
Lamar Stevens 6 5 2 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 5 3 0 1
Dalano Banton 10 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 26 21 5 4
Eugene Omoruyi 12 14 6 1
Tyus Jones S 27 11 3 7
Deni Avdija S 22 11 7 1
Jordan Poole S 25 11 3 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 9 5 1
Corey Kispert 24 9 2 0
Ryan Rollins 12 7 1 3
Anthony Gill 10 5 2 1
Johnny Davis 16 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes driving layup (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
5 Derrick White BOS
11%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
35%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.6 8.9 5.7
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 21.8 6.1 2.4
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.2 3.6 3.6
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.8 5.0 3.5
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.4 7.8 1.5
6 Derrick White BOS 14.3 5.2 2.7
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.2 5.8 4.0
8 Tyus Jones WSH 11.9 3.7 4.8
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.8 2.3 3.6
10 Deni Avdija WSH 10.2 5.7 2.5
11 Corey Kispert WSH 9.9 2.8 1.9
12 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 8.2 2.6 1.3
13 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.9 2.5 1.1
14 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 7.5 2.5 0.6
15 Al Horford BOS 7.2 5.4 1.8
16 Delon Wright WSH 6.6 2.8 4.0
17 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 5.9 3.5 1.4
18 Sam Hauser BOS 5.5 3.2 1.2
19 Mike Muscala WSH 5.4 3.3 0.9
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 5.2 3.4 0.5
21 Dalano Banton BOS 5.1 2.0 0.9
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.7 3.7 0.9
23 Ryan Rollins WSH 4.1 2.0 0.9
24 Luke Kornet BOS 3.2 2.0 1.2
25 Jared Butler WSH 2.9 1.5 1.3
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 2.7 0.4
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.