NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI27262534112
IND30252822105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (IND) / 8 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 24 17 3
Zach LaVine S 36 23 5 1
DeMar DeRozan S 35 20 3 4
Jevon Carter 18 11 1 2
Patrick Williams S 22 9 4 0
Alex Caruso 26 8 4 3
Coby White S 25 7 2 3
Andre Drummond 14 5 3 2
Torrey Craig 20 5 4 1
Ayo Dosunmu 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 32 20 11 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 19 5 13
Bruce Brown S 37 15 7 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 28 15 4 0
Buddy Hield 19 11 5 4
Jalen Smith 16 8 2 0
Andrew Nembhard 21 6 1 2
Obi Toppin S 24 6 8 0
Aaron Nesmith 27 5 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Coby White makes 27-foot three point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Obi Toppin IND
9%
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
9 Bruce Brown IND
8%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
19%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.0 4.5 3.0
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.0 5.0 10.2
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 19.1 3.6 3.2
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.7 8.3 2.3
5 Coby White CHI 14.4 3.8 4.3
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.7 4.1 2.9
7 Myles Turner IND 11.3 7.5 1.2
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.1 5.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.0 3.4 1.2
10 Buddy Hield IND 10.8 3.3 4.5
11 Bruce Brown IND 9.7 3.3 2.2
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.3 3.2 1.8
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.8 6.4 0.9
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 4.7 1.0
15 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 8.3 2.4 2.1
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.5 2.3 5.0
17 Alex Caruso CHI 7.1 3.8 2.2
18 Andre Drummond CHI 6.6 7.9 1.2
19 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 3.7 1.4
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.0 1.3
21 Jarace Walker IND 5.9 4.2 1.2
22 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.4 1.6
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.8 0.5
24 Jordan Nwora IND 3.4 1.2 0.6
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 2.2 1.2
26 Isaiah Jackson IND 2.9 3.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.