NBA games

BKN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
133–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN42243334133
CHA23322838121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (CHA) / 6 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHA
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 38 33 2 2
Mikal Bridges S 38 24 7 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 31 19 7 1
Lonnie Walker IV 29 19 5 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 10 11 8 1
Ben Simmons S 35 11 10 8
Royce O'Neale 32 8 2 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 13 5 1 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 14 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 41 23 3 9
Brandon Miller 36 22 9 2
Mark Williams S 23 18 7 1
P.J. Washington S 35 15 12 2
Gordon Hayward S 31 15 0 5
Theo Maledon 20 9 1 2
LaMelo Ball S 22 8 3 8
JT Thor 19 7 2 3
Nick Richards 13 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Simmons · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Ben Simmons makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
2 P.J. Washington CHA
11%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
6 Mark Williams CHA
9%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
8 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
9 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 22.0 4.1 2.4
2 Terry Rozier CHA 20.6 4.5 4.5
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.1 5.3 6.6
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 17.5 4.4 3.1
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 16.5 6.4 4.1
6 P.J. Washington CHA 16.4 5.4 2.1
7 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.6 2.9 1.8
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 12.6 2.7 4.9
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.1 5.3 2.5
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.9 3.2 1.9
11 Trendon Watford BKN 9.8 4.0 1.4
12 Mark Williams CHA 9.8 8.0 1.6
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.5 5.8 2.5
14 Nic Claxton BKN 9.4 5.9 1.6
15 Ben Simmons BKN 9.0 7.5 6.8
16 Nick Richards CHA 7.9 6.5 1.0
17 JT Thor CHA 7.4 4.3 1.0
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.7 5.6 0.6
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.8 1.9 0.8
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.6 1.7 1.2
21 Amari Bailey CHA 1.7 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.