NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
127–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAL2827283212127
SAC4125212817132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (SAC) / 8 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 42 30 16 2
LeBron James S 39 27 15 8
Taurean Prince S 41 20 3 2
D'Angelo Russell S 41 17 3 9
Christian Wood 14 11 5 1
Rui Hachimura 17 11 6 1
Austin Reaves S 28 5 2 2
Jaxson Hayes 7 4 2 0
Gabe Vincent 32 2 0 2
Cam Reddish 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 34 37 4 8
Malik Monk 25 22 3 3
Keegan Murray S 33 17 8 5
Kevin Huerter S 37 12 7 4
Domantas Sabonis S 34 12 15 5
Sasha Vezenkov 18 11 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 39 8 2 2
Davion Mitchell 16 5 2 2
JaVale McGee 15 4 0 0
Chris Duarte 14 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
13%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 22.7 5.1 5.0
2 LeBron James LAL 18.4 5.9 5.6
3 Anthony Davis LAL 18.1 7.6 2.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.1 12.4 6.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 15.5 4.2 3.1
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.2 6.0 1.7
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.7 3.9 5.9
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.9 3.3 1.7
9 Gabe Vincent LAL 10.0 2.1 3.0
10 Malik Monk SAC 9.9 2.6 4.6
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 8.7 3.6 1.2
12 JaVale McGee SAC 8.3 4.0 1.4
13 Taurean Prince LAL 8.2 2.4 1.1
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.2 5.5 1.0
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 7.1 3.2 0.8
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.1 1.9 3.1
17 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.9 2.7 1.6
18 Chris Duarte SAC 6.6 1.7 1.3
19 Max Christie LAL 6.5 2.3 1.1
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.9 3.1 1.1
21 Colby Jones SAC 5.9 1.4 1.2
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.2 3.5 1.2
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.7 0.9 1.0
24 Keon Ellis SAC 3.3 2.0 0.6
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 2.2 0.5
26 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.2 1.0
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.