NBA games

SA @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
83–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1720232383
LAC23333730123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (LAC) / 7 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 28 14 1 0
Cedi Osman 17 12 1 1
Victor Wembanyama S 26 11 5 2
Malaki Branham 21 9 1 2
Zach Collins S 25 9 6 4
Doug McDermott 15 8 3 2
Charles Bassey 16 6 5 1
Keldon Johnson S 24 5 5 1
Tre Jones 20 5 2 4
Julian Champagnie 7 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 28 21 3 4
Paul George S 28 19 4 5
Russell Westbrook S 27 19 8 3
Bones Hyland 21 18 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 22 16 8 0
Norman Powell 19 13 3 1
KJ Martin 18 10 2 0
Mason Plumlee 21 4 6 1
Kobe Brown 5 3 4 1
Robert Covington S 26 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keldon Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Zach Collins SA
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Keldon Johnson SA
9%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Russell Westbrook LAC
8%
10 Robert Covington LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
33%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 20.1 4.6 3.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.8 7.1 2.0
3 Devin Vassell SA 17.2 3.4 2.5
4 Bones Hyland LAC 16.9 4.0 3.7
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 16.2 4.4 3.2
6 Zach Collins SA 15.4 6.6 5.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 5.8 3.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.7 6.1 3.3
9 Tre Jones SA 9.6 3.3 5.2
10 Norman Powell LAC 9.6 2.3 1.4
11 Cedi Osman SA 8.9 3.0 1.6
12 Malaki Branham SA 8.9 2.6 1.7
13 Russell Westbrook LAC 8.7 5.8 6.0
14 Ivica Zubac LAC 8.6 6.6 0.8
15 Robert Covington LAC 6.1 3.0 1.0
16 KJ Martin LAC 5.6 3.2 1.1
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.3 5.0 1.2
18 Kobe Brown LAC 5.3 2.6 0.9
19 Charles Bassey SA 5.1 5.4 1.4
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.1 2.7 1.0
21 Doug McDermott SA 4.9 1.4 0.7
22 Amir Coffey LAC 4.8 1.7 1.3
23 Moussa Diabate LAC 4.6 4.6 0.5
24 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.7 2.7
25 Julian Champagnie SA 4.4 3.2 0.8
26 Devonte' Graham SA 3.5 1.6 0.5
27 Dominick Barlow SA 3.3 1.6 0.6
28 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.0 0.9 0.4
29 Jordan Miller LAC 2.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.