NBA games

POR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
98–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2832211798
PHI36303327126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (PHI) / 6 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 36 20 5 2
Malcolm Brogdon 26 18 5 5
Jerami Grant S 28 17 5 1
Toumani Camara 28 12 3 2
Jabari Walker 24 12 7 1
Deandre Ayton S 21 7 9 2
Robert Williams III 26 6 7 2
Scoot Henderson S 27 4 1 3
Matisse Thybulle S 11 2 0 0
Rayan Rupert 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 29 35 15 7
Tyrese Maxey S 35 26 10 4
Tobias Harris S 38 24 5 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 26 12 3 0
De'Anthony Melton S 31 12 2 8
Patrick Beverley 20 4 2 2
Furkan Korkmaz 3 4 0 0
P.J. Tucker S 20 3 4 0
Danuel House Jr. 10 2 2 2
Paul Reed 17 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
14%
2 Jerami Grant POR
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
7 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
8 Matisse Thybulle POR
7%
9 P.J. Tucker PHI
7%
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
16%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.0 8.3 5.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.0 4.2 6.5
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 4.4 2.2
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.1 5.2 3.0
5 Tobias Harris PHI 16.1 6.3 2.7
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI 14.5 4.4 4.6
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.1 4.9
8 Jerami Grant POR 13.8 3.5 1.7
9 Malcolm Brogdon POR 13.2 4.1 2.5
10 Deandre Ayton POR 9.2 9.6 1.9
11 Paul Reed PHI 7.8 5.9 1.6
12 Jabari Walker POR 7.7 5.2 0.7
13 Jaden Springer PHI 7.6 3.0 1.1
14 Skylar Mays POR 6.5 1.4 2.9
15 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.9 2.3 1.6
16 Toumani Camara POR 5.8 3.0 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 2.1 1.0
18 Kris Murray POR 4.7 2.9 0.9
19 P.J. Tucker PHI 4.1 3.8 1.1
20 Danny Green PHI 4.1 1.4 0.8
21 Filip Petrusev PHI 4.0 2.5 1.1
22 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.7 2.8 1.2
23 Moses Brown POR 2.8 3.2 0.3
24 Mo Bamba PHI 2.6 2.3 0.4
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.