NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
127–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31373326127
MIL25223330110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (MIL) / 7 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 32 20 3 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 17 1 6
De'Andre Hunter S 24 15 3 1
Dejounte Murray S 30 15 1 5
Onyeka Okongwu 23 14 7 2
Jalen Johnson S 26 14 7 1
Saddiq Bey 31 13 9 3
Clint Capela S 23 12 12 1
AJ Griffin 10 6 1 1
Kobe Bufkin 3 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 29 26 11 3
Malik Beasley S 32 18 4 1
Brook Lopez S 20 13 3 1
Bobby Portis 21 12 4 2
MarJon Beauchamp 16 8 1 0
AJ Green 6 7 1 0
Damian Lillard S 29 6 4 5
Cameron Payne 14 6 1 1
Pat Connaughton 23 5 3 2
TyTy Washington Jr. 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Trae Young ATL
12%
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
7 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
8 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
10 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 23.9 10.5 3.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 20.9 4.3 3.7
3 Trae Young ATL 20.6 2.6 8.7
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.7 5.0 1.8
5 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.6 5.0 1.5
6 Dejounte Murray ATL 12.3 4.0 4.1
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 11.9 5.3 2.9
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 4.7 1.7
9 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.0 2.2
10 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 3.4 1.2
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 9.8 3.4 3.3
12 Jae Crowder MIL 9.8 4.6 1.9
13 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 9.6 4.1 2.0
14 Clint Capela ATL 9.5 8.6 1.0
15 Bobby Portis MIL 8.6 6.0 1.9
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.3 4.5 2.1
17 AJ Griffin ATL 6.5 2.2 1.0
18 Cameron Payne MIL 5.7 1.3 2.7
19 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.6 2.3 1.4
20 AJ Green MIL 5.6 1.6 0.9
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 5.3 1.6 2.6
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.8 2.8 0.5
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.6 3.7 1.3
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 3.1 1.4
25 Trent Forrest ATL 4.2 1.4 2.3
26 Chris Livingston MIL 3.8 1.2 0.5
27 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.7 2.1 0.9
28 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.2 0.5
29 Robin Lopez MIL 3.5 2.3 1.0
30 Patty Mills ATL 1.4 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.