NBA games

GS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26312425106
HOU2423282095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (HOU) / 7 (GS) games this season
GS away
home HOU
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 24 7 6
Klay Thompson S 29 19 4 0
Gary Payton II 19 15 4 1
Andrew Wiggins S 28 13 0 0
Jonathan Kuminga 19 9 2 1
Chris Paul 27 8 5 7
Kevon Looney S 27 5 11 1
Moses Moody 17 5 3 1
Draymond Green S 21 4 5 5
Dario Saric 21 4 8 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 21 9 1
Alperen Sengun S 33 19 5 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 14 8 5
Dillon Brooks S 34 12 4 2
Amen Thompson 20 9 4 0
Fred VanVleet S 32 8 0 4
Jeff Green 21 6 3 2
Jae'Sean Tate 22 6 8 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
14%
2 Fred VanVleet HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
8%
8 Klay Thompson GS
8%
9 Kevon Looney GS
8%
10 Chris Paul GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 21.5 4.4 3.6
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.7 6.2 2.9
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.2 3.5 5.6
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.9 3.9 2.4
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 15.5 8.8 4.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.6 7.3 1.8
7 Klay Thompson GS 11.3 4.3 2.0
8 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.8 6.6
9 Moses Moody GS 11.0 3.7 1.4
10 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.9 3.4 1.5
11 Amen Thompson HOU 10.7 4.1 3.2
12 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.4 2.7 1.9
13 Dario Saric GS 8.7 4.1 1.8
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.7 5.1 4.7
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.4 2.4 0.8
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.5 7.8 1.9
17 Nate Williams HOU 6.2 2.3 0.5
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.8 2.6 1.3
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.5 2.7 1.0
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.3 2.2 1.1
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.3 4.2 0.6
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.9 2.5 1.0
23 Cory Joseph GS 3.6 2.0 2.3
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.5 2.0 1.8
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.6 0.7
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.8 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.