NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
128–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34352831128
OKC2328242095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (OKC) / 7 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 28 14 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 20 9 2
Jamal Murray S 30 19 2 8
Peyton Watson 22 17 4 1
Christian Braun 21 13 7 7
Aaron Gordon S 23 9 3 2
Julian Strawther 8 8 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 7 3 1
Reggie Jackson 22 5 0 6
Braxton Key 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 26 19 4 0
Jalen Williams S 28 13 3 5
Tre Mann 8 12 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 21 10 1 0
Josh Giddey S 22 9 2 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 7 4 7
Cason Wallace 22 7 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 19 5 5 1
Aaron Wiggins 10 5 0 0
Isaiah Joe 17 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Hunter Tyson DEN
8%
10 DeAndre Jordan DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 23.9 6.4 5.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.2 10.1 6.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 17.8 3.8 3.6
4 Jamal Murray DEN 17.2 2.9 5.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.6 6.6 1.8
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.8 4.1 1.6
7 Julian Strawther DEN 12.7 2.2 1.4
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.6 6.0 5.4
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.5 2.5 1.9
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.5 2.6 1.9
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.4 4.8 2.5
12 Hunter Tyson DEN 8.3 3.7 1.5
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.5 1.2
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 2.7 1.5
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.7 3.8 1.1
16 Ousmane Dieng OKC 7.7 3.4 2.2
17 Peyton Watson DEN 7.2 3.2 1.2
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 6.2 2.0 4.5
19 Tre Mann OKC 5.2 2.2 1.6
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.0 2.6 0.7
21 Davis Bertans OKC 4.7 0.7 0.5
22 Justin Holiday DEN 4.6 1.4 1.1
23 Braxton Key DEN 4.5 2.8 1.2
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.3 2.9 2.9
25 Olivier Sarr OKC 4.1 3.5 0.8
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.7 1.2 1.4
27 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.