NBA games

UTAH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
104–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH27232826104
PHX37294020126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (PHX) / 7 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home PHX
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 28 19 3 0
Collin Sexton 23 14 2 6
Simone Fontecchio 18 13 3 0
Keyonte George 27 12 7 6
John Collins S 28 11 10 3
Kelly Olynyk 16 9 6 3
Jordan Clarkson S 22 7 2 2
Luka Samanic 6 5 1 0
Kris Dunn 20 4 2 3
Talen Horton-Tucker S 16 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 29 26 4 7
Eric Gordon S 26 21 2 4
Grayson Allen S 31 17 4 3
Jordan Goodwin 25 12 5 5
Drew Eubanks 19 12 5 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 10 7 6
Josh Okogie S 23 7 1 0
Yuta Watanabe 21 7 4 0
Nassir Little 21 6 1 0
Udoka Azubuike 6 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"John Collins makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 John Collins UTAH
10%
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
10%
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
10%
8 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
9 Josh Okogie PHX
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
38%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 22.9 6.2 3.7
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.5 8.6 1.9
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 14.5 3.5 4.1
4 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 13.5 3.8 4.8
5 Eric Gordon PHX 11.6 2.6 1.7
6 Josh Okogie PHX 10.7 4.8 2.0
7 Saben Lee PHX 10.7 2.5 3.4
8 Grayson Allen PHX 10.6 3.5 3.5
9 John Collins UTAH 10.5 5.9 1.2
10 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.5 2.6 2.5
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 7.3 2.7
12 Keyonte George UTAH 9.5 2.1 3.0
13 Yuta Watanabe PHX 8.7 2.6 1.1
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.9 6.2 1.0
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.6 4.6 2.1
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.4 2.4 2.6
17 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 6.7 3.9 2.9
18 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.7 3.0 1.1
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.4 5.9 2.2
20 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.2 2.6 0.9
21 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.4 1.0
22 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.6 2.8 0.9
23 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 4.5 1.9 1.2
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.2 1.6 0.7
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.0 3.2 0.4
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.8 1.5 0.5
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.4 2.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.