NBA games

MIA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
90–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA3122201790
MIN26292526106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (MIN) / 7 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIN
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 22 5 4
Bam Adebayo S 33 19 3 2
Jamal Cain 25 8 5 0
Nikola Jovic S 21 8 11 4
Duncan Robinson 29 8 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 18 7 3 1
Dru Smith 22 5 1 4
Thomas Bryant 12 5 5 1
Cole Swider 2 5 1 0
Kyle Lowry S 32 3 4 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 28 25 8 1
Anthony Edwards S 33 19 2 7
Rudy Gobert S 31 14 14 1
Mike Conley S 29 14 4 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 12 10 2
Kyle Anderson 23 12 2 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 23 5 3 3
Jordan McLaughlin 6 3 0 4
Shake Milton 17 2 1 2
Troy Brown Jr. 15 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
19%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
17%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
6 Mike Conley MIN
8%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
22%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 3.8 4.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.9 6.2 2.8
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.8 6.9 2.6
4 Anthony Edwards MIN 18.4 6.9 2.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 14.9 4.6 1.8
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.2 8.4 1.1
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.9 2.6 1.8
8 Cole Swider MIA 8.4 1.8 1.1
9 Jamal Cain MIA 8.3 5.9 0.9
10 Shake Milton MIN 7.6 2.6 3.3
11 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.5 4.7 1.1
12 Dru Smith MIA 7.3 2.2 3.8
13 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.1 2.9 3.1
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.7 2.3 2.6
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.5 3.2 4.2
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.2 3.5 1.7
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.2 2.9 1.3
18 Leonard Miller MIN 6.2 4.3 0.8
19 Josh Minott MIN 6.0 2.7 1.9
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.9 3.9 0.9
21 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.9 2.7 1.6
22 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.9 2.5 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.4 0.9 2.3
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.9 1.4 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.