NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
114–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27293523114
TOR36232028107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (TOR) / 5 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 35 34 9 8
Tyrese Maxey S 41 34 6 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. 29 18 5 2
Tobias Harris S 36 15 2 2
Paul Reed 13 4 5 0
P.J. Tucker S 21 3 3 0
De'Anthony Melton S 32 2 5 4
Patrick Beverley 17 2 5 2
Danuel House Jr. 12 2 2 0
Danny Green 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 24 8 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 33 17 2 0
Gradey Dick 28 16 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 35 15 4 10
Pascal Siakam S 36 11 7 4
Malachi Flynn 13 7 0 2
Precious Achiuwa 18 6 7 3
Jakob Poeltl S 25 6 7 3
Chris Boucher 12 5 4 0
Jalen McDaniels 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes driving layup (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
15%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
14%
5 P.J. Tucker PHI
13%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
9 Danny Green PHI
0%
10 Patrick Beverley PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
11%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.9 8.3 4.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.0 3.7 5.9
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 18.7 6.6 3.6
4 De'Anthony Melton PHI 17.0 4.6 4.4
5 Tobias Harris PHI 15.5 6.8 2.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.9 4.2 1.8
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.7 3.3 2.2
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.1 3.3 5.9
9 Precious Achiuwa TOR 9.1 7.7 1.7
10 Paul Reed PHI 8.3 6.1 1.6
11 Chris Boucher TOR 7.5 4.9 0.8
12 Jaden Springer PHI 7.4 3.2 1.0
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 7.4 7.6 1.4
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.0 3.1 2.4
15 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.9 3.8 1.3
16 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.3 1.9 1.4
17 Gradey Dick TOR 4.9 1.7 0.9
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.6 2.4 0.8
19 Danny Green PHI 4.3 1.4 0.9
20 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.3 2.8 0.9
21 P.J. Tucker PHI 3.8 4.2 1.1
22 Filip Petrusev PHI 3.5 2.6 1.1
23 Mo Bamba PHI 2.2 2.4 0.3
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.