NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
125–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31293134125
CLE37123826113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (CLE) / 5 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith 30 26 9 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 21 8 13
Myles Turner S 29 20 12 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 17 13 0 1
Jalen Smith 19 13 6 3
Buddy Hield 19 10 1 4
T.J. McConnell 19 8 2 8
Bruce Brown S 32 6 4 2
Obi Toppin S 18 4 4 0
Andrew Nembhard 25 4 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 33 33 14 3
Caris LeVert S 44 31 5 8
Max Strus S 42 21 11 6
Isaac Okoro S 35 11 5 3
Georges Niang 19 7 3 2
Dean Wade S 37 6 3 3
Tristan Thompson 8 4 5 2
Craig Porter Jr. 4 0 0 1
Sam Merrill 6 0 2 1
Emoni Bates 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Caris LeVert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Caris LeVert makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
14%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Obi Toppin IND
11%
6 Isaac Okoro CLE
10%
7 Bruce Brown IND
10%
8 Dean Wade CLE
9%
9 Max Strus CLE
8%
10 Jalen Smith IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
20%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.5 4.8 8.8
2 Caris LeVert CLE 14.2 3.2 3.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.7 4.5 2.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 13.4 9.2 1.6
5 Max Strus CLE 13.2 5.3 3.1
6 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.6 4.4 3.1
7 Buddy Hield IND 10.1 3.2 4.2
8 Bruce Brown IND 8.7 3.0 2.1
9 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 5.0 0.9
10 Myles Turner IND 8.5 6.5 0.9
11 Dean Wade CLE 8.4 4.4 1.3
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.1 2.3 1.0
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.0 6.5 0.7
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.2 4.3
15 Emoni Bates CLE 7.0 2.3 0.7
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.3 4.4 1.3
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.3 1.5
18 Georges Niang CLE 6.2 3.1 1.2
19 Damian Jones CLE 5.0 3.1 0.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.2 1.2 1.6
21 Isaiah Mobley CLE 4.0 2.8 0.9
22 Jordan Nwora IND 3.7 1.5 0.7
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.2 3.4 0.6
24 Sam Merrill CLE 2.9 1.1 0.8
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.