NBA games

MEM @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
106–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22243426106
WSH25373021113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (WSH) / 7 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home WSH
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 26 2 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 16 5 2
Ziaire Williams S 34 16 10 1
David Roddy 24 14 6 2
Marcus Smart S 32 9 4 6
Xavier Tillman S 24 8 7 3
Derrick Rose 18 7 1 5
Jake LaRavia 16 5 1 1
John Konchar 22 5 9 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 36 27 4 2
Corey Kispert 32 22 3 2
Kyle Kuzma S 36 21 13 2
Tyus Jones S 28 14 2 7
Daniel Gafford S 28 10 11 0
Deni Avdija S 27 10 6 2
Danilo Gallinari 8 5 0 1
Mike Muscala 11 2 3 2
Delon Wright 20 2 2 7
Bilal Coulibaly 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ziaire Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:06 Q1
"Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Marcus Smart MEM
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Xavier Tillman MEM
8%
10 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
29%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.0 4.8 4.6
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.9 5.4 3.0
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.8 3.7 4.0
4 Marcus Smart MEM 19.2 2.5 5.3
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 16.0 6.5 2.4
6 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.9 4.7 1.8
7 Tyus Jones WSH 11.6 4.1 4.7
8 Xavier Tillman MEM 10.6 7.7 1.9
9 Deni Avdija WSH 10.2 6.1 2.8
10 Derrick Rose MEM 9.7 2.6 3.8
11 David Roddy MEM 9.4 4.5 2.0
12 Corey Kispert WSH 9.0 2.7 1.8
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.8 4.1 1.3
14 Danilo Gallinari WSH 8.5 2.9 1.2
15 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 8.5 2.9 1.0
16 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 8.3 3.1 1.5
17 Daniel Gafford WSH 7.4 5.8 0.8
18 Delon Wright WSH 6.7 3.0 3.6
19 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.7 4.1 1.7
20 Mike Muscala WSH 5.9 3.6 0.9
21 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.2 2.5 1.3
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.7 1.3 0.5
23 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 2.3 4.1
24 Jared Butler WSH 3.8 1.9 1.7
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.