NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
102–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26183325102
DET29282734118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DET) / 7 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 37 51 5 0
DeMar DeRozan S 32 20 2 4
Nikola Vucevic S 32 12 4 1
Ayo Dosunmu 15 5 3 3
Torrey Craig 23 4 3 0
Jevon Carter 13 3 1 0
Dalen Terry 1 3 0 0
Alex Caruso 21 2 5 4
Andre Drummond 14 2 5 2
Terry Taylor 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 25 4 10
Jalen Duren S 33 23 15 5
Alec Burks 26 18 2 0
Isaiah Stewart S 34 14 9 0
Marvin Bagley III 15 11 6 0
Ausar Thompson S 31 9 12 5
Jaden Ivey 22 7 0 3
Killian Hayes S 23 6 1 4
Joe Harris 11 3 1 1
Marcus Sasser 6 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
2 Coby White CHI
11%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Patrick Williams CHI
11%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
10 Killian Hayes DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 18.7 3.5 2.9
2 Cade Cunningham DET 17.8 4.1 6.6
3 Zach LaVine CHI 17.1 4.4 3.0
4 Coby White CHI 16.0 4.1 4.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.6 8.8 2.4
6 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.7 6.6 1.7
7 Jaden Ivey DET 12.5 3.8 3.8
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.2 8.8 2.0
9 Killian Hayes DET 11.7 2.5 3.6
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.9 9.3 3.4
11 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.0 6.0 1.4
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.9 3.3 1.7
13 Alec Burks DET 8.9 3.3 1.3
14 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 8.6 2.4 2.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 8.1 2.4 2.7
16 Alex Caruso CHI 7.6 3.6 1.9
17 Andre Drummond CHI 7.2 8.1 1.1
18 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 3.8 1.4
19 Stanley Umude DET 6.4 2.4 1.3
20 Jevon Carter CHI 5.7 1.5 1.7
21 James Wiseman DET 5.6 4.4 0.8
22 Joe Harris DET 4.7 1.4 0.9
23 Jared Rhoden DET 4.3 2.3 1.0
24 Terry Taylor CHI 3.8 3.7 1.2
25 Julian Phillips CHI 3.7 1.9 0.5
26 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 2.3 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.