NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24363923122
SAC29282730114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (SAC) / 6 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 41 4 4
Klay Thompson S 33 18 3 4
Jonathan Kuminga 26 12 5 0
Andrew Wiggins S 27 11 5 3
Moses Moody 21 10 3 1
Chris Paul S 33 10 2 12
Kevon Looney S 28 8 12 6
Gary Payton II 18 7 0 1
Dario Saric 14 5 4 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 39 4 4
Domantas Sabonis S 36 19 18 7
Keegan Murray S 40 16 7 1
Sasha Vezenkov 12 10 1 0
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 4 1
Malik Monk 18 9 0 6
JaVale McGee 12 7 4 0
Chris Duarte 26 4 1 3
Kevin Huerter S 16 0 2 2
Davion Mitchell 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 9-foot two point shot (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
3 Klay Thompson GS
9%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Chris Paul GS
8%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 22.2 6.5 3.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 18.7 4.5 3.2
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 18.7 5.1 5.0
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.2 11.2 6.1
5 Keegan Murray SAC 14.9 5.6 1.6
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.2 2.9 2.0
7 Moses Moody GS 11.4 3.9 1.4
8 Chris Paul GS 10.4 4.2 5.7
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.2 2.8 1.3
10 Klay Thompson GS 10.2 4.1 1.6
11 Malik Monk SAC 10.2 2.5 4.8
12 Dario Saric GS 9.4 4.2 1.8
13 JaVale McGee SAC 8.3 3.9 1.6
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.8 5.2 4.6
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.4 2.6 1.7
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.3 2.1 3.5
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.7 3.4 0.9
18 Chris Duarte SAC 6.7 1.6 1.2
19 Colby Jones SAC 6.6 1.7 1.5
20 Kevon Looney GS 6.0 6.9 1.4
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.7 2.3 1.1
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.6 4.2 0.5
23 Cory Joseph GS 4.0 2.2 2.4
24 Keon Ellis SAC 4.0 2.4 0.9
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.9 2.6 0.7
26 Alex Len SAC 3.6 2.6 1.2
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.7 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.