NBA games

ORL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31321920102
POR2629251797

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (POR) / 5 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home POR
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 23 5 3
Cole Anthony 28 18 4 2
Moritz Wagner 22 17 9 1
Paolo Banchero S 35 14 7 4
Jalen Suggs S 27 11 5 2
Markelle Fultz S 25 8 2 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 8 9 1
Gary Harris 19 3 1 1
Joe Ingles 15 0 1 1
Jonathan Isaac 8 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 41 24 5 2
Malcolm Brogdon 31 18 7 1
Jerami Grant S 36 15 4 3
Deandre Ayton S 30 14 15 1
Jabari Walker 9 9 4 0
Scoot Henderson S 25 7 3 2
Robert Williams III 20 6 3 2
Toumani Camara 23 2 4 3
Skylar Mays 8 2 0 1
Matisse Thybulle S 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Markelle Fultz assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Markelle Fultz ORL
12%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
5 Jerami Grant POR
11%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
9 Matisse Thybulle POR
8%
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
16%
Layup
57%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 15.7 3.6 2.5
2 Scoot Henderson POR 15.4 2.9 5.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 15.2 5.1 2.9
4 Jerami Grant POR 12.8 3.1 1.5
5 Cole Anthony ORL 11.7 4.6 3.2
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 11.1 3.2 2.8
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.0 5.9 2.3
8 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.5 3.9 3.5
9 Paolo Banchero ORL 9.3 4.3 3.3
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.3 3.0 1.0
11 Jabari Walker POR 8.0 5.4 0.8
12 Deandre Ayton POR 7.7 7.5 1.7
13 Jalen Suggs ORL 7.5 3.4 1.3
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.4 3.3 1.3
15 Jett Howard ORL 6.4 1.6 0.9
16 Skylar Mays POR 6.2 1.0 3.2
17 Toumani Camara POR 6.1 2.6 1.5
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 3.8 1.1
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.0 2.5 0.9
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.0 1.9 1.1
21 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.9 1.0
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.9 2.7 0.6
23 Joe Ingles ORL 4.6 2.5 1.9
24 Anthony Black ORL 4.5 3.0 1.3
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.5 2.3 1.0
26 Moses Brown POR 2.8 3.1 0.3
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.