NBA games

LAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30242935118
UTAH33302631120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (UTAH) / 5 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home UTAH
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 38 36 4 1
Kawhi Leonard S 37 25 9 5
Norman Powell 25 20 3 1
Bones Hyland 22 12 2 1
Nicolas Batum 30 8 2 3
Ivica Zubac S 19 6 2 0
Robert Covington S 20 4 1 2
Russell Westbrook S 37 4 9 4
Mason Plumlee 12 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 35 35 12 3
Kelly Olynyk 27 15 4 3
John Collins S 34 13 12 0
Jordan Clarkson S 34 13 4 6
Collin Sexton 20 13 1 0
Talen Horton-Tucker S 27 10 3 8
Keyonte George 12 8 3 2
Walker Kessler S 21 7 4 0
Kris Dunn 19 4 1 3
Ochai Agbaji 12 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
2 Paul George LAC
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
10%
6 John Collins UTAH
10%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
8%
9 Robert Covington LAC
8%
10 Russell Westbrook LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
25%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bones Hyland LAC 18.3 4.0 3.9
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.3 8.2 1.5
3 Paul George LAC 17.0 4.3 3.3
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 14.6 3.4 2.7
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.2 3.9 4.5
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 14.1 3.5 3.7
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.6 2.7 2.8
8 Keyonte George UTAH 9.7 2.2 3.1
9 John Collins UTAH 9.3 4.8 1.2
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 8.7 6.6 0.7
11 Russell Westbrook LAC 8.4 4.8 6.3
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.2 7.1 1.1
13 Kris Dunn UTAH 8.2 2.5 2.6
14 Norman Powell LAC 7.9 2.1 1.4
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.5 3.1 1.0
16 Robert Covington LAC 6.2 3.2 0.8
17 KJ Martin LAC 6.2 3.4 1.1
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.9 4.9 1.6
19 Kobe Brown LAC 5.9 2.7 0.9
20 Amir Coffey LAC 5.6 1.9 1.2
21 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 5.4 3.7 2.7
22 Moussa Diabate LAC 5.3 4.7 0.5
23 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.1 2.1 1.2
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.8 2.6 0.6
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.7 1.9 0.7
26 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.7 2.2 0.6
27 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.4 3.4 0.5
28 Jordan Miller LAC 3.2 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.