NBA games

BKN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25343031120
DAL26313137125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (DAL) / 5 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 33 30 7 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 40 23 3 8
Mikal Bridges S 35 18 4 3
Lonnie Walker IV 21 14 1 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 12 7 3
Royce O'Neale 34 11 10 3
Ben Simmons S 32 10 10 8
Day'Ron Sharpe 3 2 4 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 8 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 49 10 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 19 4 1
Kyrie Irving S 34 17 7 6
Dwight Powell 13 11 2 0
Dereck Lively II S 17 9 2 0
Josh Green 28 7 3 2
Grant Williams S 29 5 6 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 14 4 1 1
Seth Curry 9 2 0 1
Dante Exum 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
19%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
15%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
4 Ben Simmons BKN
10%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
10%
7 Grant Williams DAL
10%
8 Maxi Kleber DAL
10%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
17%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 24.7 5.9 5.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 19.9 3.3 2.6
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 17.6 4.5 3.0
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 16.2 4.5 6.2
5 Jaden Hardy DAL 15.0 3.6 2.6
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.3 3.7 2.3
7 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 13.8 2.7 1.4
8 Josh Green DAL 11.4 3.1 1.8
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 9.8 2.5 4.5
10 Trendon Watford BKN 9.8 4.1 1.4
11 Grant Williams DAL 9.6 4.9 2.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.0 6.5 1.2
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.6 2.7 1.7
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.1 5.0 2.3
15 Ben Simmons BKN 7.8 6.4 7.0
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.7 6.1 0.7
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.6 2.7 4.2
18 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.9 2.3 0.7
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.3 1.8 1.4
20 Seth Curry DAL 4.9 1.6 0.7
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.6 3.2 0.8
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.4 2.6 0.6
23 Noah Clowney BKN 4.2 3.6 0.6
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.2 2.3 0.4
25 Armoni Brooks BKN 3.3 1.4 0.7
26 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.6 0.6 0.4
27 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.8 2.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.