NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
122–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU2329312811122
SA2527243515126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (SA) / 6 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 41 25 14 7
Fred VanVleet S 45 24 8 12
Jalen Green S 38 22 5 4
Dillon Brooks S 39 17 2 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 13 9 0
Jeff Green 21 10 1 1
Boban Marjanovic 7 4 0 1
Amen Thompson 13 4 1 3
Jae'Sean Tate 14 3 0 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 40 25 3 2
Victor Wembanyama S 31 21 12 1
Keldon Johnson S 35 20 4 4
Cedi Osman 23 14 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 26 14 5 4
Malaki Branham 14 9 2 4
Zach Collins S 39 9 6 8
Doug McDermott 16 8 0 0
Tre Jones 33 6 6 8
Charles Bassey 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Zach Collins SA
11%
3 Devin Vassell SA
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Keldon Johnson SA
9%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.4 6.4 2.2
2 Devin Vassell SA 17.0 3.5 2.7
3 Zach Collins SA 16.8 6.5 4.7
4 Jalen Green HOU 14.1 3.7 1.9
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.0 7.1 1.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.8 2.7 4.1
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.8 6.0 3.9
8 Alperen Sengun HOU 12.2 7.8 3.7
9 Amen Thompson HOU 11.8 4.7 3.1
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.7 6.3 3.5
11 Tre Jones SA 10.3 3.0 5.2
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.3 2.7 1.7
13 Cedi Osman SA 8.7 3.2 1.8
14 Dillon Brooks HOU 8.2 2.6 1.7
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.0 2.8 0.9
16 Nate Williams HOU 6.9 2.6 0.6
17 Charles Bassey SA 6.0 6.1 1.6
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.4 3.2 1.0
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.0 1.8 0.9
20 Julian Champagnie SA 4.9 3.3 0.9
21 Blake Wesley SA 4.9 1.9 2.9
22 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 2.8 1.5
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 2.3 1.9
24 Dominick Barlow SA 3.8 1.7 0.6
25 Devonte' Graham SA 3.7 1.7 0.5
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.6 2.2 0.9
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 1.1 0.5
28 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.8 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.