NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
103–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR1817332510103
CHI2418232811104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (CHI) / 5 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 39 22 10 10
Pascal Siakam S 41 18 8 2
Gary Trent Jr. 36 16 5 1
OG Anunoby S 28 11 3 0
Chris Boucher 17 10 6 0
Dennis Schroder S 35 10 2 10
Jakob Poeltl S 19 8 6 0
Precious Achiuwa 23 8 9 1
Jalen McDaniels 18 0 3 1
Malachi Flynn 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 41 33 4 3
Coby White S 40 17 6 8
Alex Caruso 32 13 13 2
Nikola Vucevic S 40 11 12 1
Zach LaVine S 38 8 5 1
Andre Drummond 12 8 2 0
Torrey Craig 24 7 5 0
Ayo Dosunmu 11 4 1 0
Patrick Williams S 13 3 3 1
Jevon Carter 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
5 Coby White CHI
11%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
10 OG Anunoby TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 7.1 4.0
2 Zach LaVine CHI 19.3 4.4 3.5
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 18.3 6.1 3.9
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 15.2 3.3 2.5
5 Coby White CHI 15.1 4.0 4.1
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.7 8.1 2.7
7 OG Anunoby TOR 13.3 3.3 2.6
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.1 3.3 5.7
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.6 2.6 2.5
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.6 3.5 1.8
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.3 2.7 2.4
12 Andre Drummond CHI 7.5 9.2 1.1
13 Jakob Poeltl TOR 7.2 8.0 1.5
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.1 3.4 3.2
15 Alex Caruso CHI 6.3 2.1 2.0
16 Jalen McDaniels TOR 6.1 3.6 1.3
17 Torrey Craig CHI 6.0 3.7 1.5
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.8 1.6 1.8
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.5 1.7 1.1
20 Chris Boucher TOR 5.4 4.3 0.5
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.2 2.7 0.9
22 Terry Taylor CHI 3.9 3.9 1.3
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.4 2.4 1.4
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 2.0 0.6
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.