NBA games

OKC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31212729108
CLE26163330105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CLE) / 6 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CLE
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 34 11 4
Luguentz Dort S 39 25 6 2
Chet Holmgren S 31 16 13 2
Jalen Williams S 35 14 5 2
Cason Wallace 19 9 2 0
Isaiah Joe 22 5 3 2
Vasilije Micic 6 3 0 1
Josh Giddey S 28 2 6 6
Aaron Wiggins 11 0 0 1
Lindy Waters III 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 42 43 8 5
Caris LeVert 31 17 2 2
Evan Mobley S 34 14 15 3
Isaac Okoro S 28 10 7 2
Dean Wade S 27 8 5 0
Max Strus S 38 8 5 4
Georges Niang 21 2 2 1
Ty Jerome 9 2 1 3
Damian Jones 10 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.9 4.4 4.3
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 20.2 4.9 5.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 17.5 3.7 3.8
4 Josh Giddey OKC 14.8 6.2 5.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.7 5.3 1.6
6 Max Strus CLE 13.2 5.5 2.9
7 Evan Mobley CLE 12.7 7.8 1.3
8 Caris LeVert CLE 11.9 3.1 4.2
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.5 3.9 3.3
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.5 3.8 1.4
11 Ousmane Dieng OKC 9.1 3.7 2.3
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.9 2.7 1.2
13 Cason Wallace OKC 8.2 2.9 1.8
14 Ty Jerome CLE 7.6 2.5 3.5
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 3.7 1.0
16 Emoni Bates CLE 6.4 2.3 0.7
17 Vasilije Micic OKC 6.2 2.0 4.6
18 Tre Mann OKC 5.7 2.5 1.6
19 Georges Niang CLE 5.6 3.1 1.3
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 3.1 0.7
21 Damian Jones CLE 5.2 3.0 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 5.0 2.1 0.6
23 Davis Bertans OKC 5.0 0.8 0.5
24 Olivier Sarr OKC 4.6 3.8 0.8
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.1 1.2 1.5
26 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.9 2.8 0.8
27 Sam Merrill CLE 2.8 1.1 0.7
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.