NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28273323111
BOS25352732119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (BOS) / 6 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 28 6 6
Bam Adebayo S 35 27 7 2
Jimmy Butler III S 34 14 5 3
Kyle Lowry S 32 13 8 5
Dru Smith 23 9 2 3
Duncan Robinson 24 9 1 0
Kevin Love S 21 9 9 2
Thomas Bryant 13 2 4 1
Jamal Cain 4 0 1 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 36 28 6 3
Jaylen Brown S 34 27 6 1
Jayson Tatum S 41 22 8 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 17 9 1
Jrue Holiday S 36 17 10 7
Sam Hauser 10 3 1 0
Payton Pritchard 13 3 0 1
Oshae Brissett 14 2 5 0
Al Horford 25 0 10 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Jamal Cain MIA
7%
9 Kevin Love MIA
7%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.1 8.9 5.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.0 3.7 4.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.3 4.4 3.8
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.2 6.8 2.5
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.6 7.4 1.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.4 2.1 4.1
7 Derrick White BOS 11.8 4.8 2.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.0 4.5 3.2
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.1 2.8 2.1
10 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 8.8 2.7 1.3
11 Jamal Cain MIA 8.6 7.2 0.9
12 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.9 4.6 1.2
13 Al Horford BOS 7.8 4.3 1.8
14 Dru Smith MIA 6.7 2.2 4.1
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.7 3.3 1.4
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.6 2.9 1.4
17 Kevin Love MIA 6.5 5.9 1.4
18 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.2 4.0 1.0
19 Kyle Lowry MIA 5.7 2.1 2.6
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 5.3 3.7 0.5
21 Dalano Banton BOS 5.3 2.1 0.9
22 Luke Kornet BOS 4.0 2.5 1.5
23 JD Davison BOS 3.6 1.2 2.5
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.4 3.1 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 2.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.