NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35343126126
ATL31303128120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (ATL) / 5 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 33 31 3 5
RJ Barrett S 34 26 3 6
Julius Randle S 34 17 12 9
Donte DiVincenzo 20 16 2 1
Immanuel Quickley 24 11 6 6
Isaiah Hartenstein 10 8 2 1
Mitchell Robinson S 38 7 13 1
Quentin Grimes S 25 6 1 1
Josh Hart 22 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 32 27 6 1
Dejounte Murray S 35 18 7 6
Trae Young S 35 18 3 12
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 16 1 3
Clint Capela S 28 13 13 2
Jalen Johnson 30 11 9 2
Onyeka Okongwu 20 6 2 1
AJ Griffin 8 6 2 0
Saddiq Bey S 26 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes dunk (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 RJ Barrett NY
11%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
9 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
10 Julius Randle NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 21.3 2.5 8.2
2 Immanuel Quickley NY 21.1 3.3 3.5
3 RJ Barrett NY 20.8 3.9 3.0
4 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.1 6.2 1.5
5 Julius Randle NY 13.6 7.5 2.8
6 Jalen Brunson NY 13.1 3.1 4.3
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.9 5.0 1.8
8 Jalen Johnson ATL 11.6 4.8 3.1
9 Miles McBride NY 11.2 1.9 3.8
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL 11.2 4.8 1.7
11 Dejounte Murray ATL 11.2 3.4 3.7
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 10.0 7.5 1.0
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.9 5.5 2.1
14 Clint Capela ATL 9.0 7.4 1.0
15 Quentin Grimes NY 8.8 2.2 1.9
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 8.3 3.6 3.2
17 Evan Fournier NY 8.2 2.1 0.8
18 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.8 2.8 2.1
19 AJ Griffin ATL 6.9 2.3 1.1
20 Josh Hart NY 6.5 3.4 1.6
21 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.4 2.5 1.5
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.4 4.0 1.5
23 Trent Forrest ATL 4.9 1.6 2.4
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.5 2.2 0.9
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 1.3 0.5
26 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.9 0.7 1.0
27 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 4.1 1.0
28 Patty Mills ATL 1.8 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.