NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
108–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25362819108
MEM18382325104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (MEM) / 6 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 22 12 7
Jamal Murray S 34 22 1 5
Reggie Jackson 22 16 2 6
Aaron Gordon S 30 10 2 3
Peyton Watson 18 9 3 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 9 13 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 8 2 1
Zeke Nnaji 13 7 0 0
Christian Braun 19 5 4 2
Julian Strawther 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 21 9 2
Marcus Smart S 31 20 2 5
Derrick Rose 22 16 4 3
Desmond Bane S 32 15 3 3
Xavier Tillman S 34 13 8 2
Ziaire Williams S 31 11 9 3
Jake LaRavia 16 6 5 0
John Konchar 30 2 6 2
David Roddy 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Xavier Tillman MEM
9%
7 Hunter Tyson DEN
8%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 4.9 4.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.6 9.8 6.6
3 Julian Strawther DEN 15.4 2.2 1.7
4 Jamal Murray DEN 14.4 3.2 6.0
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 13.6 5.6 2.4
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.0 2.6 2.2
7 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.8 4.0 1.5
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.6 5.3 2.6
9 David Roddy MEM 10.3 4.8 1.9
10 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.6 7.1 1.7
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.1 2.6 1.6
12 Hunter Tyson DEN 8.9 4.0 1.6
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.9 3.9 1.3
14 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 8.3 3.1 1.5
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.9 4.3 1.4
16 Derrick Rose MEM 7.4 2.1 3.6
17 Peyton Watson DEN 7.1 3.1 1.5
18 Braxton Key DEN 5.6 3.2 1.5
19 Justin Holiday DEN 5.1 1.6 1.2
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.7 1.4 1.4
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.6 3.1 3.1
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.6 1.4 0.4
23 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.4 2.3 4.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.