NBA games

DET @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32222928111
CHA2126282499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CHA) / 5 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alec Burks 31 24 4 2
Jaden Ivey 23 18 2 4
Isaiah Stewart S 36 15 7 1
Marvin Bagley III 13 14 4 1
Jalen Duren S 35 14 17 3
Cade Cunningham S 24 12 2 6
Killian Hayes S 29 6 3 3
Ausar Thompson S 30 6 13 6
Joe Harris 11 2 0 1
Marcus Sasser 8 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 20 3 1
LaMelo Ball S 33 20 9 9
Gordon Hayward S 34 19 9 4
Brandon Miller 33 17 6 2
P.J. Washington S 29 13 3 3
Theo Maledon 14 6 2 0
JT Thor 25 2 4 0
Mark Williams S 21 2 3 1
Nick Richards 16 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 2-foot dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington CHA
12%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Mark Williams CHA
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
8 Gordon Hayward CHA
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
10 Killian Hayes DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
39%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 19.7 4.6 6.4
2 Terry Rozier CHA 18.9 4.5 5.2
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.6 4.6 6.2
4 P.J. Washington CHA 17.0 5.9 2.0
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 14.6 6.0 3.8
6 Killian Hayes DET 12.6 2.7 3.7
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.2 6.5 1.7
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.2 9.4 2.7
9 Jaden Ivey DET 11.4 4.1 3.4
10 Brandon Miller CHA 11.0 4.9 2.6
11 Mark Williams CHA 10.5 9.3 1.6
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.3 6.7 1.5
13 Jalen Duren DET 10.2 7.3 1.8
14 Marcus Sasser DET 9.5 3.0 3.1
15 Nick Richards CHA 9.0 6.8 1.1
16 JT Thor CHA 8.2 4.4 1.1
17 Stanley Umude DET 7.1 2.6 1.4
18 Alec Burks DET 7.0 3.2 1.2
19 James Wiseman DET 6.1 4.7 0.9
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.9 2.3 1.0
21 Joe Harris DET 5.6 1.7 0.9
22 Jared Rhoden DET 4.9 2.5 1.0
23 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.0 1.4 2.0
24 Amari Bailey CHA 1.7 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.