NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
95–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX3022321195
LAL18302428100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (LAL) / 6 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 39 11 2
Eric Gordon S 30 15 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 30 14 6 2
Josh Okogie S 33 10 8 3
Grayson Allen S 35 6 6 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 4 9 3
Yuta Watanabe 15 3 1 0
Drew Eubanks 17 2 4 2
Nassir Little 13 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 30 12 2
LeBron James S 35 21 8 9
D'Angelo Russell S 33 14 4 5
Austin Reaves S 28 10 2 1
Christian Wood 21 7 10 1
Rui Hachimura 12 7 0 0
Gabe Vincent 35 7 3 6
Cam Reddish 12 4 1 0
Taurean Prince S 18 0 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 3-foot layup (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
14%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Josh Okogie PHX
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
14%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 20.5 5.2 3.6
2 LeBron James LAL 17.6 4.8 4.6
3 Austin Reaves LAL 16.9 4.3 3.4
4 Anthony Davis LAL 15.4 6.5 2.2
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.3 3.2 5.7
6 Saben Lee PHX 11.5 2.8 3.6
7 Grayson Allen PHX 10.9 3.4 3.8
8 Josh Okogie PHX 10.7 4.8 2.1
9 Eric Gordon PHX 10.6 2.9 2.0
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.3 7.4 2.7
11 Yuta Watanabe PHX 9.8 3.1 1.2
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.4 1.7 2.5
13 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.1 3.7 1.3
14 Taurean Prince LAL 8.5 2.5 1.2
15 Christian Wood LAL 7.2 4.7 1.0
16 Chimezie Metu PHX 7.1 3.0 1.0
17 Max Christie LAL 7.0 2.5 1.3
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.7 6.7 2.4
19 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.4 4.3 2.3
20 Cam Reddish LAL 6.2 3.2 1.1
21 Nassir Little PHX 6.1 2.8 1.3
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.4 3.5 1.2
23 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.2 3.1 1.0
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 4.4 1.2 1.3
25 Colin Castleton LAL 3.7 4.9 0.4
26 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 1.8 0.6
27 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.0 1.2 0.4
28 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.9 3.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.