NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
117–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23313132117
MIL30332530118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MIL) / 4 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 31 4 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. 32 27 4 0
Joel Embiid S 36 24 7 6
Tobias Harris S 37 20 7 2
De'Anthony Melton S 25 10 2 4
Paul Reed 12 3 4 2
Patrick Beverley 14 2 2 2
Danny Green 14 0 2 1
P.J. Tucker S 26 0 7 0
Jaden Springer 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 39 8 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 23 12 3
Brook Lopez S 29 13 2 0
Bobby Portis 19 10 6 2
Jae Crowder 27 9 4 2
Pat Connaughton 20 7 2 2
Khris Middleton S 16 6 3 4
Malik Beasley S 31 5 4 3
MarJon Beauchamp 16 4 2 0
Cameron Payne 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
18%
2 P.J. Tucker PHI
15%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
0%
10 Danny Green PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 22.8 10.6 3.5
2 De'Anthony Melton PHI 19.0 5.0 5.0
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 18.2 3.0 6.0
4 Tobias Harris PHI 14.6 6.7 2.7
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.9 4.1 2.0
6 Damian Lillard MIL 13.5 3.4 3.3
7 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 10.2 4.6 2.2
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.0 2.9 1.7
9 Jae Crowder MIL 9.2 4.5 1.6
10 Paul Reed PHI 9.1 6.5 1.5
11 Brook Lopez MIL 8.9 3.6 0.8
12 Jaden Springer PHI 8.4 3.5 1.3
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.6 4.9 1.8
14 Bobby Portis MIL 7.3 5.7 1.6
15 AJ Green MIL 5.9 1.7 0.9
16 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.5 1.7 1.3
17 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 5.1 2.9 0.4
18 Cameron Payne MIL 5.0 1.1 3.1
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.0 3.4 1.4
20 Danny Green PHI 4.3 1.1 0.8
21 Filip Petrusev PHI 4.0 2.5 1.2
22 Chris Livingston MIL 4.0 1.4 0.4
23 Robin Lopez MIL 3.8 2.5 1.0
24 P.J. Tucker PHI 2.9 3.3 1.2
25 Mo Bamba PHI 2.7 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.