NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
111–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR20272638111
LAC29383224123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (LAC) / 4 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malcolm Brogdon 23 20 2 5
Anfernee Simons S 27 18 2 4
Shaedon Sharpe 28 14 6 3
Jerami Grant S 30 13 3 1
Scoot Henderson S 36 11 3 4
Robert Williams III 23 10 7 0
Matisse Thybulle S 20 8 1 1
Toumani Camara 16 7 2 1
Jabari Walker 6 6 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 23 4 12 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 32 27 3 6
Kawhi Leonard S 29 23 5 6
Ivica Zubac S 26 20 12 0
Bones Hyland 22 17 0 3
Russell Westbrook S 29 11 5 13
Norman Powell 23 8 3 1
Mason Plumlee 18 6 8 2
Robert Covington S 23 5 4 2
Jordan Miller 4 2 0 0
Moussa Diabate 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 2-foot dunk (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bones Hyland LAC
11%
2 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
6 Jabari Walker POR
7%
7 Paul George LAC
7%
8 Jerami Grant POR
7%
9 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
10 Norman Powell LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
38%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bones Hyland LAC 17.4 4.5 4.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 17.2 2.2 2.2
3 Scoot Henderson POR 14.7 2.5 5.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 14.1 4.7 2.7
5 Jerami Grant POR 10.9 2.4 1.1
6 Paul George LAC 9.6 4.3 1.8
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC 8.3 2.2 1.2
8 Jabari Walker POR 6.8 6.0 0.7
9 Norman Powell LAC 6.7 1.4 1.1
10 Kobe Brown LAC 6.4 3.1 1.0
11 KJ Martin LAC 5.7 3.6 1.1
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 5.2 5.7 0.4
13 Robert Covington LAC 5.0 2.3 0.5
14 Moussa Diabate LAC 5.0 5.7 0.4
15 Amir Coffey LAC 5.0 1.8 1.3
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 4.1 1.4
17 Toumani Camara POR 4.6 2.4 1.3
18 Kris Murray POR 4.5 3.0 1.0
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.3 2.0 0.8
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 2.0 0.5
21 Moses Brown POR 2.7 3.8 0.3
22 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.7 0.6
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.