NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
126–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36283230126
SA43252328119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (SA) / 4 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 33 13 10
Kyrie Irving S 36 22 2 6
Grant Williams S 35 17 6 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 17 6 4
Dereck Lively II 31 16 10 1
Josh Green 30 11 2 1
Maxi Kleber S 23 6 7 2
Dante Exum 8 3 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 12 1 1 0
Seth Curry 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 23 5 3
Keldon Johnson S 32 17 9 7
Tre Jones 25 16 5 6
Victor Wembanyama S 23 15 5 2
Zach Collins S 32 14 5 3
Jeremy Sochan S 29 13 8 5
Cedi Osman 22 12 0 2
Malaki Branham 18 7 2 2
Charles Bassey 13 2 5 2
Doug McDermott 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes layup (Keldon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Zach Collins SA
12%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
10%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
6 Grant Williams DAL
9%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Josh Green DAL
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.8 5.7 2.2
2 Luka Doncic DAL 17.8 4.9 2.9
3 Zach Collins SA 16.5 6.5 5.1
4 Devin Vassell SA 15.0 2.9 2.3
5 Jaden Hardy DAL 14.3 3.7 2.4
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 11.6 3.1 1.7
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.0 6.0 3.3
8 Josh Green DAL 10.0 3.0 1.5
9 Keldon Johnson SA 10.0 4.8 2.8
10 Malaki Branham SA 9.3 2.6 1.6
11 Tre Jones SA 9.2 2.5 5.5
12 Cedi Osman SA 7.6 3.4 1.9
13 Dante Exum DAL 7.2 2.9 4.4
14 Grant Williams DAL 6.5 4.7 2.1
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 5.7 5.0 0.8
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.4 1.0
17 Charles Bassey SA 5.2 5.7 1.7
18 Julian Champagnie SA 5.2 3.3 1.2
19 Blake Wesley SA 5.1 1.9 3.4
20 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 4.9 2.1 0.4
21 Seth Curry DAL 4.9 1.5 0.5
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.5 2.7 0.5
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.3 2.4 0.4
24 Dominick Barlow SA 4.1 1.7 0.8
25 Devonte' Graham SA 3.8 1.7 0.7
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 1.1 0.7
27 Maxi Kleber DAL 2.8 1.9 0.3
28 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.8 2.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.