NBA games

SAC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
130–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC32403325130
UTAH24342927114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (UTAH) / 5 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home UTAH
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 33 33 4 2
Domantas Sabonis S 32 22 12 5
De'Aaron Fox S 33 18 5 6
Keegan Murray S 30 15 8 1
Malik Monk 23 10 2 7
Chris Duarte 15 9 2 1
Sasha Vezenkov 16 8 2 0
JaVale McGee 13 8 1 1
Kevin Huerter S 24 7 5 2
Keon Ellis 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 31 24 4 6
Lauri Markkanen S 32 19 10 1
John Collins S 31 15 11 2
Collin Sexton 20 9 3 0
Keyonte George 19 8 2 2
Talen Horton-Tucker S 22 8 1 4
Walker Kessler S 22 8 8 0
Kris Dunn 16 8 1 2
Ochai Agbaji 19 5 3 0
Kelly Olynyk 17 5 6 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
3 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
8%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
6%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
6%
7 JaVale McGee SAC
6%
8 John Collins UTAH
5%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
5%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
34%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.5 7.6 1.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 17.0 4.7 3.8
3 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 16.0 4.3 4.6
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.4 10.5 5.2
5 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 4.7 1.3
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.2 2.4 3.2
7 Keyonte George UTAH 10.2 1.9 3.1
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 9.3 2.8 2.9
9 Malik Monk SAC 9.0 1.8 3.7
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.0 6.4 1.1
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 7.7 1.9 1.2
12 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 7.4 2.8 1.0
13 JaVale McGee SAC 7.3 3.9 1.5
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.3 2.3 2.4
15 John Collins UTAH 7.2 3.0 0.9
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.9 1.2 3.2
17 Colby Jones SAC 6.9 1.4 1.4
18 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.2 1.8 1.2
19 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.4 3.1 0.5
20 Chris Duarte SAC 4.5 0.8 0.6
21 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 4.5 1.9 1.0
22 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 4.2 3.0 2.2
23 Keon Ellis SAC 4.1 2.4 0.7
24 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.6 2.0 0.5
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.5 4.0 0.3
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.1 2.4 0.3
27 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.3 1.1
28 Jordan Ford SAC 3.0 1.0 0.4
29 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.0 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.