NO @ MEM
NBA
FedExForum
·Final
111–104
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 25 | 32 | 25 | 29 | 111 |
| MEM | 28 | 19 | 23 | 34 | 104 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MEM) / 4 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
MEM
78%
22%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum S | 37 | 24 | 4 | 6 |
| Zion Williamson S | 32 | 23 | 7 | 3 |
| Brandon Ingram S | 36 | 19 | 7 | 6 |
| Herbert Jones S | 38 | 13 | 8 | 3 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 29 | 12 | 12 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 14 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 19 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 15 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kira Lewis Jr. | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Xavier Tillman ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Xavier Tillman Sr. makes dunk (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jaren Jackson Jr.
MEM
14%
2
Brandon Ingram
NO
12%
3
Zion Williamson
NO
11%
4
Derrick Rose
MEM
10%
5
CJ McCollum
NO
10%
6
Desmond Bane
MEM
9%
7
Xavier Tillman
MEM
9%
8
Herbert Jones
NO
9%
9
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
9%
10
Ziaire Williams
MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
34%
Layup
13%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desmond Bane | MEM | 24.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | MEM | 14.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 |
| 3 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 13.4 | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| 4 | Zion Williamson | NO | 12.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| 5 | CJ McCollum | NO | 12.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Jake LaRavia | MEM | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Ziaire Williams | MEM | 11.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 8 | David Roddy | MEM | 10.7 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 9 | Dyson Daniels | NO | 9.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 8.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Kenneth Lofton Jr. | MEM | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 12 | Kira Lewis Jr. | NO | 7.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Xavier Tillman | MEM | 7.4 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| 14 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 6.4 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| 15 | Derrick Rose | MEM | 6.2 | 1.6 | 4.1 |
| 16 | Herbert Jones | NO | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 17 | Luke Kennard | MEM | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 18 | GG Jackson | MEM | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 19 | Jacob Gilyard | MEM | 5.0 | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | NO | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 21 | E.J. Liddell | NO | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Kaiser Gates | NO | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.