NBA games

OKC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
124–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33283033124
CHI35202722104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CHI) / 5 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 31 5 10
Jalen Williams S 32 16 3 5
Josh Giddey S 32 16 6 6
Isaiah Joe 22 14 5 2
Cason Wallace 19 13 2 1
Chet Holmgren S 25 11 4 3
Ousmane Dieng 14 9 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 33 8 7 2
Olivier Sarr 11 4 4 0
Aaron Wiggins 11 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 33 20 5 2
Zach LaVine S 25 16 4 3
Coby White S 31 15 4 4
Torrey Craig 22 11 7 1
Nikola Vucevic S 32 11 9 4
Ayo Dosunmu 9 8 0 1
Patrick Williams S 30 8 3 4
Andre Drummond 16 6 5 1
Alex Caruso 20 6 2 3
Jevon Carter 16 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
8 DeMar DeRozan CHI
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Olivier Sarr OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
21%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 19.2 4.2 3.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 18.7 3.5 3.5
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.3 5.3 1.4
4 Coby White CHI 15.1 3.7 4.3
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.0 7.5 2.2
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI 13.6 2.2 2.8
7 Josh Giddey OKC 13.4 6.1 5.0
8 Patrick Williams CHI 11.8 3.2 1.6
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.5 2.9 2.7
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.3 2.7 1.1
11 Ousmane Dieng OKC 9.4 3.6 2.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 1.6 0.8
13 Andre Drummond CHI 7.0 8.8 1.2
14 Vasilije Micic OKC 6.5 1.8 4.9
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.5 1.6
16 Tre Mann OKC 6.0 2.5 1.6
17 Alex Caruso CHI 5.8 1.5 1.6
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.7 1.5 1.7
19 Davis Bertans OKC 5.6 0.8 0.5
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 5.4 2.1 0.6
21 Torrey Craig CHI 5.4 3.0 1.4
22 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.7 0.5
23 Terry Taylor CHI 4.4 4.0 1.4
24 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.9 3.2 0.8
25 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.7 0.4
26 Dalen Terry CHI 2.9 2.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.