NBA games

MIN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
94–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2526232094
TOR2528202497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (TOR) / 5 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home TOR
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 26 14 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 19 10 3
Rudy Gobert S 32 15 13 1
Mike Conley S 31 11 4 3
Naz Reid 24 10 4 1
Kyle Anderson 30 7 9 5
Shake Milton 21 4 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 23 2 4 2
Troy Brown Jr. 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 33 22 3 7
OG Anunoby S 34 20 6 1
Scottie Barnes S 37 17 8 5
Pascal Siakam S 34 15 7 6
Precious Achiuwa 24 8 8 0
Jakob Poeltl S 24 7 11 1
Gary Trent Jr. 27 5 2 2
Malachi Flynn 10 3 0 2
Jalen McDaniels 16 0 2 2
Gradey Dick 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
7 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
8 OG Anunoby TOR
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Shake Milton MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.7 6.5 3.2
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 17.2 6.1 3.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 16.8 4.9 2.0
4 Anthony Edwards MIN 15.8 5.4 2.1
5 Naz Reid MIN 14.6 4.9 1.5
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.5 2.5 2.5
7 Luka Garza MIN 10.9 4.3 1.2
8 OG Anunoby TOR 10.8 2.3 2.5
9 Dennis Schroder TOR 8.7 2.9 5.0
10 Shake Milton MIN 8.1 2.6 3.0
11 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.3 4.2 3.1
12 Jalen McDaniels TOR 6.8 3.4 1.0
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 6.5 7.1 0.7
14 Leonard Miller MIN 6.5 4.9 0.7
15 Josh Minott MIN 6.2 3.2 1.9
16 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 6.0 3.0 0.9
17 Gradey Dick TOR 5.6 1.7 1.0
18 Chris Boucher TOR 5.6 4.3 0.6
19 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.5 2.7 1.3
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.1 2.4 4.0
21 Daishen Nix MIN 4.7 1.5 2.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.7 1.3 2.3
23 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.2 2.9 0.9
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 4.1 1.8 1.6
25 Mike Conley MIN 4.0 1.5 2.1
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.