NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
102–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29182827102
MIA26322520103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MIA) / 4 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 30 3 9
Jalen Duren S 32 17 14 4
Isaiah Stewart S 35 14 14 2
Killian Hayes S 31 10 1 3
Marcus Sasser 10 8 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 16 8 8 3
Alec Burks 25 7 5 0
Jaden Ivey 17 4 2 3
Ausar Thompson S 27 4 7 3
Joe Harris 12 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 32 22 8 3
Jimmy Butler III S 34 19 13 4
Tyler Herro S 35 16 2 3
Duncan Robinson 22 15 2 1
Kevin Love S 28 13 10 2
Thomas Bryant 16 8 6 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 13 6 2 2
Caleb Martin 20 2 3 1
Dru Smith 9 2 0 1
Kyle Lowry S 32 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes 5-foot two point shot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 Isaiah Stewart DET
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
8 Killian Hayes DET
8%
9 Jamal Cain MIA
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
58%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
15%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.4 4.1 5.2
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.6 6.1 2.5
3 Ausar Thompson DET 13.5 9.0 2.7
4 Jaden Ivey DET 13.3 4.4 3.3
5 Killian Hayes DET 12.9 2.4 3.8
6 Cade Cunningham DET 12.6 4.3 4.9
7 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.7 6.0 1.1
8 Jamal Cain MIA 9.9 7.4 1.0
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.8 4.6 1.4
10 Marcus Sasser DET 9.7 2.9 3.5
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.5 2.6 2.6
12 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.3 4.8 0.9
13 Dru Smith MIA 8.0 2.5 5.2
14 Stanley Umude DET 7.2 2.6 1.4
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 3.2 1.5
16 Jalen Duren DET 6.9 3.8 1.0
17 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.9 4.3 1.1
18 James Wiseman DET 6.2 4.7 0.9
19 Alec Burks DET 5.9 2.2 1.1
20 Kyle Lowry MIA 5.7 1.6 3.1
21 Joe Harris DET 5.1 1.2 0.8
22 Kevin Love MIA 5.0 4.8 1.1
23 Jared Rhoden DET 4.8 2.5 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.