NBA games

CLE @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE37262724114
BKN32312426113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (BKN) / 4 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BKN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 27 5 6
Max Strus S 39 27 12 2
Isaac Okoro S 32 18 6 4
Darius Garland S 32 15 2 5
Caris LeVert 31 11 3 5
Evan Mobley S 34 10 6 1
Damian Jones 11 4 0 2
Ty Jerome 6 2 0 0
Georges Niang 20 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 25 36 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 35 20 6 4
Cameron Johnson S 26 12 5 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 28 10 5 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 16 10 4 1
Nic Claxton S 28 7 7 4
Royce O'Neale 23 5 7 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 24 5 1 3
Ben Simmons S 23 4 10 9
Day'Ron Sharpe 12 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
11%
6 Caris LeVert CLE
11%
7 Max Strus CLE
10%
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
10 Cam Thomas BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
28%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 19.2 4.2 3.5
2 Cam Thomas BKN 14.5 2.7 2.0
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 13.4 3.8 2.0
4 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 13.3 2.7 1.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 12.6 8.0 1.2
6 Caris LeVert CLE 11.1 2.8 3.7
7 Trendon Watford BKN 9.3 4.3 1.3
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.0 3.2 2.7
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 9.0 2.4 3.8
10 Max Strus CLE 8.6 3.2 2.7
11 Nic Claxton BKN 8.4 5.0 1.2
12 Ty Jerome CLE 8.1 2.8 4.4
13 Ben Simmons BKN 7.4 5.1 5.6
14 Emoni Bates CLE 7.2 2.4 0.7
15 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.9 4.0 1.8
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.8 6.7 0.4
17 Georges Niang CLE 6.3 2.9 1.2
18 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.3 1.8 1.1
19 Damian Jones CLE 4.3 3.2 0.5
20 Isaiah Mobley CLE 4.2 2.9 0.9
21 Noah Clowney BKN 3.8 3.8 0.5
22 Sam Merrill CLE 3.2 1.2 0.8
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.