NBA games

HOU @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
86–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2023261786
ORL29253329116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (ORL) / 5 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ORL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 28 14 8 6
Fred VanVleet S 34 14 1 5
Dillon Brooks S 26 14 4 2
Jalen Green S 30 10 1 0
Amen Thompson 21 8 5 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 7 5 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 5 2 0
Jeff Green 14 4 3 1
Nate Williams 5 4 0 0
Jock Landale 9 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 24 20 8 2
Franz Wagner S 27 19 4 2
Paolo Banchero S 28 12 5 5
Jonathan Isaac 14 11 4 0
Gary Harris 17 11 5 0
Markelle Fultz S 25 10 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 8 8 1
Jalen Suggs S 21 8 4 0
Goga Bitadze 5 7 3 0
Anthony Black 5 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:40 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
2 Jalen Green HOU
9%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
8%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
8%
6 Markelle Fultz ORL
7%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
8 Anthony Black ORL
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
22%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 15.0 3.7 1.9
2 Franz Wagner ORL 14.9 3.6 2.2
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 7.2 1.7
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.4 2.8 3.6
5 Amen Thompson HOU 11.4 4.5 3.2
6 Alperen Sengun HOU 10.4 7.3 3.0
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.7 2.7 0.9
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.5 5.1 2.4
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.5 3.6 3.7
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.0 3.0 0.9
11 Cole Anthony ORL 8.6 3.2 3.3
12 Paolo Banchero ORL 7.9 3.9 2.4
13 Jalen Suggs ORL 7.0 3.3 1.3
14 Jett Howard ORL 6.9 1.7 0.8
15 Nate Williams HOU 6.6 2.7 0.4
16 Jock Landale HOU 6.5 2.9 1.0
17 Dillon Brooks HOU 6.1 1.8 1.3
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.4 3.8 1.1
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.9 0.8
20 Anthony Black ORL 4.2 2.9 1.4
21 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 2.4 1.3
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.6 2.4 2.1
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.2 2.4 0.4
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.2 1.8 1.1
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.1 2.0 0.9
26 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.