NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
108–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30213126108
NY18282731104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (NY) / 5 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 34 11 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 38 30 8 0
Derrick White S 32 12 6 2
Jaylen Brown S 38 11 6 5
Jrue Holiday S 35 9 4 2
Al Horford 26 8 7 2
Payton Pritchard 11 4 1 1
Sam Hauser 14 0 2 0
Luke Kornet 8 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley 28 24 6 4
RJ Barrett S 36 24 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 33 15 3 6
Julius Randle S 34 14 11 7
Quentin Grimes S 23 11 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 26 7 8 2
Josh Hart 22 7 6 0
Mitchell Robinson S 22 2 6 1
Donte DiVincenzo 15 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 3-foot jump bank shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 RJ Barrett NY
12%
4 Mitchell Robinson NY
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Quentin Grimes NY
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
10 Julius Randle NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
49%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
15%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.2 7.7 5.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.1 4.2 3.4
3 RJ Barrett NY 18.1 4.1 2.6
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.0 7.8 1.3
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.8 2.4 4.9
6 Julius Randle NY 11.1 6.5 1.6
7 Derrick White BOS 10.3 4.3 2.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.2 4.3 3.4
9 Miles McBride NY 10.2 1.9 3.7
10 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 9.6 2.8 1.5
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.9 2.7 1.8
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.8 7.7 0.8
13 Jalen Brunson NY 8.6 2.2 2.9
14 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.5 4.7 1.7
15 Evan Fournier NY 8.0 2.2 0.7
16 Neemias Queta BOS 7.7 5.0 0.9
17 Quentin Grimes NY 7.2 1.9 1.8
18 Al Horford BOS 7.1 3.7 1.5
19 Sam Hauser BOS 7.0 3.1 1.5
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 5.8 4.0 0.8
21 Dalano Banton BOS 5.5 2.2 1.0
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.5 3.8 0.9
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.5 0.7 1.0
24 Luke Kornet BOS 3.4 2.7 1.5
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 3.7 0.7
26 Jericho Sims NY 3.1 4.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.