NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH39292824120
IND34393733143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (IND) / 4 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 25 25 2 0
Jordan Poole S 26 18 2 5
Tyus Jones S 28 16 3 6
Danilo Gallinari 17 16 3 0
Corey Kispert 24 11 5 1
Deni Avdija S 21 9 7 5
Delon Wright 25 8 6 6
Daniel Gafford S 21 6 5 0
Eugene Omoruyi 8 4 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly 23 3 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bruce Brown S 27 24 3 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 27 20 3 11
Bennedict Mathurin S 26 18 4 5
Buddy Hield 25 14 2 5
Jalen Smith 13 13 8 0
Andrew Nembhard 22 12 4 10
Myles Turner S 23 11 8 1
Obi Toppin S 19 11 4 1
Aaron Nesmith 23 7 5 1
Jordan Nwora 6 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
15%
2 Daniel Gafford WSH
13%
3 Tyus Jones WSH
12%
4 Obi Toppin IND
12%
5 Myles Turner IND
12%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
7 Bruce Brown IND
12%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
10 Danilo Gallinari WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
20%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 19.4 3.3 3.3
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.2 4.4 2.4
3 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 10.7 3.3 0.9
4 Tyus Jones WSH 10.1 3.9 3.8
5 Buddy Hield IND 9.2 3.3 3.7
6 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 5.2 0.8
7 Jarace Walker IND 8.5 4.7 1.6
8 Corey Kispert WSH 8.1 2.1 1.6
9 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.5 4.8
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.9 1.5 0.7
11 Myles Turner IND 7.8 5.6 0.7
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.7 2.9 1.7
13 Mike Muscala WSH 7.6 3.8 1.0
14 Jalen Smith IND 7.5 6.1 0.7
15 Daniel Gafford WSH 7.3 5.4 0.6
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.1 2.7 1.1
17 Bruce Brown IND 7.0 2.9 2.2
18 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.7 3.8 1.3
19 Delon Wright WSH 6.4 2.1 3.1
20 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.6 2.4 1.3
21 Jared Butler WSH 3.7 2.2 1.9
22 Jordan Nwora IND 3.4 1.2 0.6
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.3 3.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.