NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29232137110
CHA25262738116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (CHA) / 5 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 23 1 9
Jalen Johnson 29 21 7 2
Saddiq Bey S 29 15 5 0
Clint Capela S 29 15 13 0
Dejounte Murray S 33 11 2 6
De'Andre Hunter S 31 9 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 7 4 4
Onyeka Okongwu 19 7 4 2
AJ Griffin 10 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 32 25 5 2
Terry Rozier S 34 24 5 6
LaMelo Ball S 31 15 6 10
Mark Williams S 30 13 15 1
Brandon Miller 25 13 3 2
Gordon Hayward S 33 10 8 7
Nick Richards 18 7 4 1
JT Thor 20 5 2 1
Theo Maledon 16 4 3 4
Nick Smith Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Trae Young makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 Mark Williams CHA
9%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
7 Clint Capela ATL
8%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
10 Kobe Bufkin ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 19.2 2.8 6.3
2 Terry Rozier CHA 17.3 4.3 5.0
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.1 4.3 5.2
4 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.3 6.7 1.4
5 P.J. Washington CHA 14.2 6.1 1.9
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.1 5.2 1.8
7 Brandon Miller CHA 10.2 5.5 2.7
8 Dejounte Murray ATL 9.4 3.6 2.8
9 Mark Williams CHA 9.0 7.7 1.3
10 Nick Richards CHA 8.8 7.1 1.0
11 Jalen Johnson ATL 8.7 3.7 3.0
12 JT Thor CHA 8.6 4.7 1.1
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 7.9 3.5 3.0
14 AJ Griffin ATL 7.1 2.1 1.1
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.8 2.7 1.2
16 Clint Capela ATL 6.7 5.7 0.5
17 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.7 2.6 1.5
18 Bruno Fernando ATL 5.6 4.2 1.3
19 Trent Forrest ATL 5.3 1.8 2.5
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.7 2.4 1.0
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.5 1.4 0.6
22 Patty Mills ATL 1.7 0.7 0.7
23 Amari Bailey CHA 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.