NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
108–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28331928108
GS28184018104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (GS) / 5 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 32 6 8
Kevin Durant S 37 18 11 3
Josh Okogie S 32 17 5 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 14 14 3
Eric Gordon 32 10 4 1
Yuta Watanabe 18 8 4 0
Drew Eubanks 19 4 7 2
Nassir Little 3 3 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 14 2 4 3
Grayson Allen S 21 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 27 5 1
Klay Thompson S 36 15 7 3
Chris Paul S 34 14 6 9
Jonathan Kuminga 20 12 6 1
Moses Moody 18 11 3 0
Andrew Wiggins S 27 10 1 0
Dario Saric 20 7 7 1
Kevon Looney S 28 7 11 1
Gary Payton II 22 1 2 2
Cory Joseph 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 4-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
2 Klay Thompson GS
10%
3 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
4 Devin Booker PHX
9%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
6 Josh Okogie PHX
9%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
8%
10 Stephen Curry GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS 23.7 6.1 3.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 19.7 3.6 3.5
3 Kevin Durant PHX 19.6 4.0 3.4
4 Devin Booker PHX 17.4 1.8 3.4
5 Grayson Allen PHX 13.5 3.2 4.0
6 Saben Lee PHX 11.7 2.8 3.8
7 Moses Moody GS 11.7 3.7 1.4
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.0 2.7 1.3
9 Dario Saric GS 9.9 3.5 2.2
10 Eric Gordon PHX 9.6 2.0 1.7
11 Yuta Watanabe PHX 9.3 2.7 1.1
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.6 5.8 2.3
13 Chris Paul GS 8.5 3.4 5.5
14 Josh Okogie PHX 8.4 4.1 1.8
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.3 5.3 5.2
16 Klay Thompson GS 8.1 3.3 1.2
17 Chimezie Metu PHX 7.2 3.0 1.0
18 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.4 4.3 1.8
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.1 6.2 2.1
20 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.6 1.2
21 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.3 3.2 1.0
22 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 5.8 1.4
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.0 4.2 0.6
24 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.0 0.9
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 1.8 0.7
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.9 3.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.