NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
107–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL20342627107
DEN34292432119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (DEN) / 6 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 29 21 8 5
Taurean Prince S 30 18 3 1
Anthony Davis S 34 17 8 4
Austin Reaves S 31 14 8 4
D'Angelo Russell S 36 11 4 7
Christian Wood 15 7 4 0
Cam Reddish 18 7 4 0
Rui Hachimura 15 6 3 0
Gabe Vincent 22 6 1 2
Max Christie 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 29 13 11
Jamal Murray S 34 21 2 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 20 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 35 15 7 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 12 12 2
Reggie Jackson 24 8 3 1
Christian Braun 19 5 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 12 4 0 1
Peyton Watson 11 3 0 0
Jalen Pickett 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
7 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
8 Julian Strawther DEN
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 18.9 8.2 5.3
2 Julian Strawther DEN 16.0 2.5 1.8
3 Austin Reaves LAL 15.5 3.7 2.9
4 LeBron James LAL 14.0 4.0 4.4
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.3 3.2 4.9
6 Anthony Davis LAL 12.8 5.7 1.6
7 Jamal Murray DEN 11.8 3.0 5.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.1 3.7 1.1
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.3 1.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 8.7 1.9 1.8
11 Max Christie LAL 8.5 2.9 1.3
12 Aaron Gordon DEN 8.3 4.5 2.1
13 Peyton Watson DEN 8.1 3.0 1.7
14 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.9 4.8 1.2
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.8 1.2 2.1
16 Taurean Prince LAL 6.9 2.0 0.8
17 Christian Wood LAL 6.9 4.5 0.8
18 Cam Reddish LAL 5.9 2.9 1.0
19 Braxton Key DEN 5.6 3.5 1.7
20 Justin Holiday DEN 5.6 1.7 1.3
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.2 3.4 3.3
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.8 3.6 1.1
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.8 1.4 1.9
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.2 1.4
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 4.3 0.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.