NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
123–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS37353219123
SAC29264029124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 36 29 10 3
Stephen Curry S 37 29 10 6
Klay Thompson S 36 20 9 2
Moses Moody 13 11 1 2
Dario Saric 17 10 2 3
Draymond Green S 33 8 6 3
Gary Payton II 17 7 5 1
Cory Joseph 8 4 3 3
Chris Paul 5 3 0 0
Kevon Looney S 29 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 40 29 9 7
Malik Monk 26 21 3 1
Kevin Huerter S 33 21 9 5
Harrison Barnes S 26 12 4 1
Trey Lyles 24 11 6 0
Domantas Sabonis S 37 9 8 10
Sasha Vezenkov 15 8 4 1
Chris Duarte S 14 5 0 0
Davion Mitchell 9 4 0 0
Keon Ellis 6 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Huerter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
7 Klay Thompson GS
8%
8 Kevon Looney GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
9%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.3 4.6 6.2
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.0 4.7 4.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.6 11.7 7.6
4 Klay Thompson GS 15.0 3.3 2.8
5 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.0 3.9 2.8
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.8 4.9 1.6
7 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 3.3 4.9
8 Dario Saric GS 12.3 5.8 2.2
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.4 3.1 1.5
10 Chris Paul GS 11.2 3.5 6.7
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.4 3.0 1.2
12 Draymond Green GS 9.1 3.9 5.0
13 Kevon Looney GS 7.0 8.2 2.1
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.8 3.5 0.7
15 Moses Moody GS 6.7 3.4 1.0
16 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.3 3.2 1.9
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.0 1.4 2.5
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.1 2.9 0.7
19 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.7 1.9 0.5
20 JaVale McGee SAC 4.5 4.1 0.6
21 Colby Jones SAC 4.3 1.4 0.6
22 Chris Duarte SAC 4.1 2.0 0.9
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 2.2 0.4
24 Keon Ellis SAC 3.1 1.6 0.8
25 Cory Joseph GS 2.8 1.0 1.7
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.3 1.3 0.5
27 Jordan Ford SAC 2.3 0.6 0.3
28 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.6 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.