NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
115–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU22283827115
DAL29253037121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 35 31 9 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 16 9 2
Dillon Brooks S 28 16 1 1
Jalen Green S 34 12 3 5
Tari Eason 21 11 8 0
Fred VanVleet S 41 10 4 12
Aaron Holiday 21 8 4 4
Jeff Green 13 6 0 1
Jae'Sean Tate 11 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 41 9 9
Kyrie Irving S 36 27 2 5
Derrick Jones Jr. 34 15 6 1
Dante Exum 15 12 1 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 11 1 0
Dereck Lively II S 28 8 5 2
Josh Green S 30 5 7 2
Richaun Holmes 13 2 3 0
Dwight Powell 3 0 0 0
Grant Williams S 18 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Richaun Holmes DAL
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
10%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.5 6.3 6.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.4 4.5 5.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.3 10.1 6.2
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.5 4.7 3.8
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.1 4.6 9.0
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.2 3.4 2.0
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 7.6 1.4
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 3.9 1.8
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.7 4.3 1.3
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.5 7.3 1.1
11 Grant Williams DAL 7.6 3.0 1.6
12 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.4 3.5 1.1
13 Josh Green DAL 6.4 2.5 2.0
14 Tari Eason HOU 6.3 5.4 1.0
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.1 1.8 0.6
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.8 1.5
17 Dante Exum DAL 5.1 2.4 1.6
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.1 1.6 0.9
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.4 1.4
20 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 2.4 0.5
21 Seth Curry DAL 3.8 1.5 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 1.9 0.5
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.0 3.4 0.6
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.6 1.4 0.5
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.6 2.2 0.6
26 Nate Hinton HOU 2.5 1.1 0.4
27 Jock Landale HOU 2.0 1.9 0.5
28 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.8 1.2 0.5
29 Markieff Morris DAL 1.7 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.