NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
103–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29321725103
MIN19342330106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 32 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 34 16 8 6
Jalen Williams S 34 10 3 3
Josh Giddey S 28 10 6 1
Cason Wallace 17 10 0 0
Isaiah Joe 24 9 1 3
Aaron Wiggins 16 8 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 25 3 3 1
Jaylin Williams 11 3 5 3
Kenrich Williams 15 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 28 21 5 1
Troy Brown Jr. 21 17 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 36 17 16 0
Naz Reid 25 15 7 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 13 10 3
Mike Conley S 37 9 2 8
Kyle Anderson 23 7 5 2
Shake Milton 12 4 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 26 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 3-foot layup (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
9%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 5.8 7.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 5.8 6.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.1 9.0 3.8
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.4 8.4 2.6
5 Jalen Williams OKC 18.3 4.0 3.6
6 Josh Giddey OKC 12.8 5.9 4.8
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 11.2 1.6
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.0 2.9 5.9
9 Naz Reid MIN 9.1 3.6 1.0
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 4.0 1.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.5 2.6 1.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.7 2.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 4.3 3.2
14 Shake Milton MIN 6.3 2.4 1.5
15 Cason Wallace OKC 5.8 2.3 1.6
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.5 2.1
17 Leonard Miller MIN 5.1 3.6 0.8
18 Davis Bertans OKC 4.1 1.0 0.6
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.0 3.2 1.2
20 Tre Mann OKC 4.0 1.8 1.0
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.9 2.6 0.7
22 Daishen Nix MIN 3.9 1.2 1.3
23 Aaron Wiggins OKC 3.8 1.8 0.7
24 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.7 0.9 2.9
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.4 1.2 1.3
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.8 1.6 0.9
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.8 3.1 0.4
28 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.