NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
91–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1628222591
NY29242735115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 36 18 3 2
Miles Bridges S 32 13 4 2
Mark Williams S 25 12 12 0
Terry Rozier S 33 11 2 5
P.J. Washington 27 11 8 3
Nick Smith Jr. 5 8 0 0
Bryce McGowens 13 5 2 0
James Bouknight 5 5 1 0
Ish Smith 14 4 1 1
Gordon Hayward S 28 4 6 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 34 25 20 5
Immanuel Quickley 26 23 3 1
Josh Hart 30 17 6 2
RJ Barrett S 28 16 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 34 12 3 7
Quentin Grimes S 19 6 1 1
Donte DiVincenzo 19 6 2 0
Mitchell Robinson S 33 6 10 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 14 4 6 2
DaQuan Jeffries 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Julius Randle NY
13%
3 RJ Barrett NY
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
12%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
11%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
10%
9 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 24.8 8.9 5.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.7 3.7 6.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 8.4 3.1
4 Terry Rozier CHA 20.4 4.2 5.5
5 RJ Barrett NY 19.8 4.3 3.3
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.5 3.4 3.3
7 Gordon Hayward CHA 14.0 5.1 4.0
8 P.J. Washington CHA 13.0 4.6 2.0
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.9 3.8 2.0
10 Mark Williams CHA 12.5 10.3 1.5
11 Josh Hart NY 9.5 5.1 2.9
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.6 10.0 1.0
13 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.5 3.1 2.0
14 Quentin Grimes NY 7.5 2.0 1.7
15 Evan Fournier NY 7.3 1.9 0.7
16 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.8 4.8 1.0
17 Theo Maledon CHA 5.5 1.9 2.1
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.8 2.0 0.9
19 Ish Smith CHA 4.7 1.8 2.2
20 JT Thor CHA 4.6 2.6 0.8
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.7 1.2 0.6
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.3 0.6 0.5
23 Miles McBride NY 2.2 0.6 0.4
24 Leaky Black CHA 1.9 0.9 0.3
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 1.8 0.4
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.