NBA games

MIL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
131–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31283438131
MIA22403527124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 33 10 5
Damian Lillard S 37 32 4 9
Khris Middleton S 23 17 8 2
Malik Beasley S 38 16 10 1
Brook Lopez S 32 12 4 4
Pat Connaughton 15 7 1 1
Bobby Portis 23 6 2 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 6 1 0
Cameron Payne 18 2 1 3
MarJon Beauchamp 9 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 42 31 10 5
Kyle Lowry S 34 21 4 6
Josh Richardson S 37 20 3 7
Caleb Martin 26 14 1 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 14 4 6
Duncan Robinson S 31 13 3 3
Kevin Love S 26 6 10 4
Jamal Cain 11 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
8%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
8%
6 Thomas Bryant MIA
7%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
6%
10 Josh Richardson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.7 11.2 6.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.0 4.4 6.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.1 11.0 5.0
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.5 4.5 4.5
5 Brook Lopez MIL 18.8 5.9 1.6
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.6 3.3 3.3
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.4 4.5 3.1
8 Khris Middleton MIL 12.6 4.2 4.2
9 Bobby Portis MIL 11.9 7.2 1.4
10 Josh Richardson MIA 11.3 2.9 3.0
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 11.1 3.7 4.2
12 Malik Beasley MIL 10.6 4.2 1.4
13 Jamal Cain MIA 8.7 5.4 1.0
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 3.6 1.9
15 Cole Swider MIA 7.4 1.4 1.2
16 Caleb Martin MIA 6.8 3.1 1.5
17 Kevin Love MIA 6.7 5.5 1.7
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.6 4.1 2.0
19 Cameron Payne MIL 6.3 1.9 2.8
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.2 4.3 2.0
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.1 3.9 1.4
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.6 2.4 1.2
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.1 3.4 0.8
24 AJ Green MIL 3.5 1.3 0.8
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.1 1.5 0.7
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.0 1.6 0.6
27 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 0.7 0.3
28 Robin Lopez MIL 1.8 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.