NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33282915105
CLE29353826128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 31 18 6 1
De'Andre Hunter S 26 18 4 2
Saddiq Bey S 32 14 4 3
Clint Capela S 22 14 9 0
Trae Young S 32 13 1 10
Dejounte Murray S 31 13 3 1
Onyeka Okongwu 22 13 9 2
Bruno Fernando 4 2 3 0
Garrison Mathews 4 0 1 0
Wesley Matthews 16 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 40 11 5
Darius Garland S 38 19 2 8
Evan Mobley S 34 17 19 1
Georges Niang 19 12 7 1
Jarrett Allen S 30 11 8 2
Max Strus S 35 11 3 7
Caris LeVert 30 10 3 1
Isaac Okoro 16 6 2 2
Craig Porter Jr. 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
10%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
8 Clint Capela ATL
9%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.3 3.7 10.3
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.1 4.7 5.9
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.4 3.8 7.3
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 20.7 4.1 5.5
5 Evan Mobley CLE 20.1 10.9 3.5
6 Max Strus CLE 17.2 5.9 4.5
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.1 3.8 2.4
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.4 8.5 2.8
9 Caris LeVert CLE 15.7 4.3 3.6
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.3 3.9 1.6
11 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.6 5.7 1.5
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.5 9.6 1.2
13 Georges Niang CLE 9.1 3.4 1.5
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.9 4.1 2.0
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.8 2.8 2.8
16 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 7.7 6.8 1.3
17 Trent Forrest ATL 4.1 1.3 2.2
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.9 1.4 0.6
19 AJ Griffin ATL 3.7 1.3 0.6
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.6 2.5 0.9
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.3 1.6 0.7
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.7 0.9
23 Sam Merrill CLE 2.8 1.0 0.6
24 Patty Mills ATL 2.3 0.9 0.7
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.