NBA games

TOR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
103–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR21233128103
BKN22302439115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BKN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 17 11 6
Pascal Siakam S 35 17 10 2
Gary Trent Jr. 25 15 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 32 14 5 9
Chris Boucher 12 13 1 0
OG Anunoby S 37 10 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 25 6 9 4
Malachi Flynn 16 5 0 1
Jalen McDaniels 13 5 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 10 1 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 38 23 9 8
Mikal Bridges S 38 22 10 5
Cameron Johnson S 27 18 9 3
Royce O'Neale 31 18 7 4
Nic Claxton S 32 15 8 0
Lonnie Walker IV 23 7 1 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 26 5 9 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 5 5 2
Trendon Watford 11 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:30 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
9 Royce O'Neale BKN
8%
10 OG Anunoby TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
20%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.3 6.1 4.6
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.0 7.7 6.0
3 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.6 3.4 4.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.5 8.3 5.4
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 17.1 4.0 6.5
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.6 5.4 3.4
7 OG Anunoby TOR 15.9 4.4 2.9
8 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.8 3.3 1.9
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.5 8.4 3.1
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.6 7.4 1.6
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.7 2.1 1.4
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.9 4.7 1.6
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.4 4.6 2.9
14 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.3 5.8 2.3
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.9 2.7 2.0
16 Trendon Watford BKN 6.9 3.6 1.9
17 Chris Boucher TOR 6.5 3.9 0.7
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.5 6.4 1.0
19 Harry Giles III BKN 6.0 3.0 0.4
20 Armoni Brooks BKN 4.5 1.9 0.8
21 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.9 2.6 0.6
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.4 1.6 0.6
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.3 0.9 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.7 0.3
25 Jalen Wilson BKN 1.7 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.